Crescimento da safra brasileira é impulsionado pela soja

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A expansão da safra de soja nas Américas é fruto do aumento da demanda chinesa.

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Se por um lado a produção deve aumentar ainda mais no maior exportador brasileiro, por outro lado o crescimento das importações chinesas esfriou.

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Essa dinâmica é vista elevando os estoques mundiais de soja para máximos históricos até meados de 2024, incluindo estoques acima da média, mas não recordes, que medem a oferta em relação à demanda.

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Os preços globais da soja caíram significativamente nos últimos meses e estão bem abaixo dos níveis dos últimos dois anos.

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Mas se os preços continuarem caindo, os agricultores brasileiros podem ser menos incentivados a aumentar a área quando o plantio começar no final deste ano

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No mês passado, o USDA estabeleceu as importações de soja da China em 2023-24 em 100 milhões de toneladas, acima dos 98 milhões em 2022/23

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Isso seria 7% maior do que em 2016/17, embora a safra global de 2023/24 seja 17% maior do que naquele ano.

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